After defeat: What next for Lai and the DPP?

Voters returned to the polls on Saturday for the second time in less than a month to cast ballots in seven legislative districts on recall motions targeting Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers. None succeeded. At the same time, a KMT-backed national referendum on nuclear power also failed to clear the legal threshold.

Soon after the results were clear, President William Lai (賴清德) addressed the nation.

While praising civic groups behind the largest mass recall election since Taiwan’s democratization, his main message was that Taiwanese have shown their determination “to safeguard freedom and democracy.”

However, he also expressed hope for dialogue and cooperation with the opposition and talked about Cabinet adjustments and pledged better engagement with the KMT-led opposition-majority legislature.

Some reshuffling has already begun, with Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝), Minister of Digital Affairs Huang Yen-nun (黃彥男) and Deputy Minister of Education Yeh Ping-cheng (葉丙成) stepping down.

It is clear that not only does the public expect change, but younger voters feel increasingly disengaged. United Microelectronics Corp founder Robert Tsao (曹興誠), a driving force behind the campaigns, attributed the lack of turnout among Taiwanese younger than 30 to Chinese Communist Party influence via Chinese social media.

Yet despite Beijing’s malign efforts, surveys show younger Taiwanese overwhelmingly identify solely as Taiwanese. The challenge for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is that this generation has come of age under its administrations. For many younger Taiwanese, the DPP is the establishment, and frustrations over livelihoods or policy failures naturally translate into discontent with the ruling party.

Lai outlined “four priorities”: the economy, livelihoods, vulnerable groups and young people. If reinforced with concrete policies that resonate with younger generations, this agenda could help him and the DPP secure future electoral victories. The party’s crushing defeat in the 2018 local elections was reversed in 2020, with younger voters powering then-president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) landslide re-election.

During the Sunflower movement, my conversations with students and graduates revealed concerns beyond the defense of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy. Many worried about how opening the economy to China without adequate safeguards could threaten their livelihoods.

Since Tsai’s presidency, DPP administrations have prioritized strengthening national defense. Taiwan’s military ties with the US and regional partners continue to deepen, and Lai has pledged to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2030. Yet the DPP’s long-standing message of “resist China, protect Taiwan” might no longer be sufficient on its own to secure the support of younger voters.

Lai’s speech was a step in the right direction, but the real test lies ahead. Much would depend on how the DPP works with the opposition and addresses the kitchen-table concerns that dominate the minds of younger and swing voters — together accounting for more than half of Taiwan’s electorate.

Issues such as soaring housing prices and stagnant wages are among voters’ top priorities.

Safeguarding Taiwan from Chinese annexation would require not only credible defense capabilities, but also an economy in which people feel secure, empowered and financially sustained.

This article was previously published on Taipei Times on August 25 2025.