Venezuela is about oil for other reasons

Global headlines have been dominated by the US kidnapping of deposed Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. While debates continue regarding its compliance under international law, it is worth taking a closer look at the motive behind the operation and what it means for Taiwan.

Parallels have been drawn with 1989’s Operation Just Cause, in which then-US president George H.W. Bush ordered the capture of then-Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. One reason Bush cited for the operation was drug trafficking, used as a pretext in Maduro’s seizure. However, many argue that Just Cause was carried out on realpolitik motives, as Noriega increasingly received military aid from the Soviet Union and its allies. Maduro was also aligned with Cuba and China.

Oil is another stark common factor. Panama is critical to global oil shipping, while Venezuela is home to one of the world’s largest crude oil reserves. China has been by far its largest buyer since former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez forged an alliance with the country.

As Venezuela’s largest oil export destination, China is put in a tailspin, as control of that supply would now be US hands. What complicates this even further is the positive market response. Global equity indices from New York and London to Tokyo hit an all-time high on Monday with the S&P Energy Index rising to its highest since March last year alongside rallying major banks and defense manufacturers, all in light of investments and opportunities that come from potential US involvement upon the ouster of a pro-China and pro-Russia dictator. This was not the outcome Chinese leaders had hoped for as economic and energy security are top of their priority list.

Last month alone, Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA exported a daily average of 975,000 barrels of US-sanctioned oil, with more than 600,000 barrels going to China, which stockpiles approximately 1 million barrels a day. Reports last month estimated that Venezuela accounts for 4 to 7 percent of China’s overall oil supply.

Beijing is even more reliant on Tehran, with Iran accounting for more than 13 to 15 percent of its total oil supply. Recent reports have revealed that Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has drawn up a “Plan B” to flee in the case its security forces succumb to the rising mass protests amid the dire economic conditions built upon decades of autocratic rule and sanctions.

Any attack on Taiwan, whether direct military invasion or a prolonged blockade, would require a massive oil supply. Maduro’s capture in the context of Taiwan would only further complicate Beijing’s plans to annex the country.

Countries cozying up to Beijing and Moscow would think twice before continuing to side with Beijing. It goes beyond explanation that Taiwan is a core US interest, with the nation producing more than 90 percent of the world’s advanced chips, and its central location in the first island chain important to protect Washington’s Pacific interests.

This presents an opportunity for Taipei to address energy security, and boost regional deterrence that aligns US and Taiwanese interests. If China’s oil imports from Venezuela and Iran are reduced, it would significantly hamper Chinese ambitions against Taiwan.

This article was previously published on Taipei Times on January 08, 2026.