Impact of Japan’s snap poll on Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday announced that she would dissolve parliament on Friday. Although the snap election on Feb. 8 might appear to be a domestic affair, it would have real implications for Taiwan and regional security.

Whether the Takaichi-led coalition can advance a stronger security policy lies in not just gaining enough seats in parliament to pass legislation, but also in a public mandate to push forward reforms to upgrade the Japanese military. As one of Taiwan’s closest neighbors, a boost in Japan’s defense capabilities would serve as a strong deterrent to China in acting unilaterally in the region. Takaichi has publicly reiterated the long-standing defense policy that an armed attack against Taiwan would be a threat to Japanese national security — one that could trigger Japan’s self-defense forces to mobilize.

As China employs numerous “gray zone” tactics in its quest to seize Taiwan, having one of the nation’s geographically closest partners, equipped with top advanced and sophisticated naval and air defense technology and firepower, on its side is a game changer. One of China’s prime goals is to domesticize its disputes with Taiwan. Takaichi’s comments on Japanese involvement in a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan proves how incoherent that narrative is.

Apart from deploying its military, China is also building a maritime militia to form expansive sea barriers in disputed waters near Taiwan and Japan. On Jan. 11, it mobilized more than 2,000 fishing boats in the East China Sea. Some analysts said that Beijing is coordinating a similar maneuver in the region’s skies with the 3,000 civilian aircraft under its flag. Takaichi has already pledged to raise the national defense budget to 2 percent of GDP, while her administration has drawn plans to deploy anti-aircraft missiles that could hit major Chinese cities, in Yonaguni, one of Japan’s closest islands to Taiwan.

Riley Walters, Japan senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, believes that the election is necessary for Takaichi to reclaim power in the Diet and implement her vision of a stronger national security strategy. Takaichi has vowed to tackle various Chinese threats, whether direct military coercion, Taiwan’s security, espionage and other veiled threats, such as land acquisitions at sensitive locations near Japan’s military assets.

A large win will ensure that she has a strong mandate in implementing stronger defense capabilities. As many opposition parties do not share her view and advocate rapprochement with China, with some demanding that she retract her statement on Taiwan, a decisive win will make opposition to stronger defense less emboldened. It would also give her more bargaining power with her party’s ruling coalition partner and the Democratic Party for the People, a rising party that has consistently polled in the top three that Takaichi hopes to work closer with to realize her national security goals.

The latest JNN poll showed Takaichi’s popularity rising to 78 percent as of last week. Other large national polls show her at 92 percent among those aged 18 to 29, and more than 65 percent for all other age groups. Whether that would translate into votes remains to be seen. What is certain is that the outcome would likely affect Taiwan and the region’s overall security trajectory in the face of increasing Chinese threats and coercion.

This article was previously published on Taipei Times on January 21, 2026.