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  • Writer's pictureWei Azim Hung

Report: U.S. Midterm Election 2022

Updated: Oct 13, 2023


Key takeaways:
  • Democrat Takes Senate, Republican likely to take slim House majority

    • Democrats won elections for governor in the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

    • Catherine Cortez Masto’s Nevada win gives senate control to democrats

    • Republicans appear to be slowly inching closer to the 218 seats that would deliver them a House majority

  • Democrats exceeds expectations, Republicans ‘red wave’ missing in action

  • Trump endorsed candidates projected to lose ‘big’

    • Republican Mehmet Oz’s 3.4-point loss to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, which flipped that Senate seat blue

    • Trump’s political brand is increasingly under assault

    • Will likely be launching his presidential campaign on Nov. 15

  • Ron DeSantis led a red tsunami in Florida, re-elected with 59.4% of the vote

    • A potential candidate for GOP’s 2024 nomination

    • Florida no longer a swing state

  • Georgia: GOP Herschel Walker’s race against incumbent Dem Raphael Warnock is close, and with neither candidate cracking 50%, Georgia will advance to a runoff on Dec. 6


Top Voters Concerns, Biden Unpopularity

Traditionally in U.S. politics, the party that occupies the White House almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Overall, exit polls showed that high inflation and abortion rights were voters’ top concerns, with about three in ten voters picking one or the other as their top concern. On the other hand, ‘crime’, a major campaign focus by republicans, was the top issue for just about one in ten voters. With record high inflation (8.2%), However, two-thirds of voters for House candidates don’t want Joe Biden to run for reelection in 2024.

Trump’s Expected Resurgence, Curbed

The infighting between Donald Trump and Republican leadership likely contributed to the GOP’s midterm underperformance. Trump endorsed candidates projected to lose ‘big’. Trump-backed candidates, including New Hampshire Senate candidate Don Bolduc and Pennsylvania gubernatorial contender Doug Mastriano, lost their races. Biggest indicator was Republican Mehmet Oz’s 3.4-point loss to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, which flipped that Senate seat blue. Subsequently, some conservatives lashed out at Trump, and, in response, he launched a string of social media salvos against his critics.


Moreover, Trump belittled GOP rising star Ron DeSantis, who led a republican victory in Florida (59.4%) — a probable GOP candidate for the party’ 2024 presidential nomination. Trump’s political brand is increasingly under assault; he will be making an announcement on Nov 15 to launching his presidential campaign for 2024.

Democrat Steady at Swing States and Stronghold

Democrats won the "blue wall" states of Michigan (Gretchen Whitmer), and Wisconsin (Tony Evers). Josh Shapiro succeeds an outgoing Democratic governor in Pennsylvania. Democratic governors in Minnesota and New Mexico will also hold their seat.

The Deciding Factor: Georgia

GOP Herschel Walker’s race against incumbent Dem Raphael Warnock is close, and with neither candidate cracking 50%, Georgia will advance to a runoff on Dec. 6. However, with Dem Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada helped Democrats keep control of the Senate. The Georgia Seat is key because it determines whether the Democrat will have 51 or 50 seats in the Senate. In last two years, the Democrats with 50 seats have had to rely on tiebreaking votes by Vice President Kamala Harris and compromising with West Virginia senator Joe Manchin.

Elected Senators

Legend:

  • (S) - Previously elected by a Senate special election

  • Bolded names indicate re-election


Media key takeaways:
  • No red wave yet

  • House Republicans have trouble ahead

  • Trump v DeSantis

  • Democracy defenders fared well – but threat remains

  • Florida no longer a swing state

  • Trump’s weak candidates

 
  • Questions over control remain

  • Key states are still counting ballots

  • Democrats go a long way to protecting their Senate majority

  • Trump’s no good, very bad night

  • Democrats hold their own in the suburbs

  • Another January 6 committee member loses

  • DeSantis’ big win could be a 2024 launchpad

  • GOP makes gains with Latinos in Florida

  • Democrats had a good night in governor’s races

  • Abortion rights, and its defenders, triumph

 
  • Fetterman has the upper hand

  • Abortion on the ballot

  • A wave or a ripple

  • DeSantis’ Next Move?

 
  • The Senate is undecided, and is going to go on a while

  • Republicans underperformed in the House, and there's going to be a lot of finger-pointing

  • There's also going to be blame directed at Trump

  • Florida might be the new Ohio

  • Democrats appear to slip again with Latino voters

  • The cross currents of this election between abortion rights and inflation were real

 
  • Big night for abortion rights advocates

  • GOP's worse-than-average midterm performance

  • Democrats limit damage

  • Trump's election denialism takes a beating

  • Strong showing for DeSantis

  • Revival of "normal Republicans" on the horizon?

  • Latinos and Republicans

 
  • Big wins for abortion rights

  • A record number of women governors

  • Fewer women in congress (as of now)

 
  • Biden backlash fails to materialize

  • Red-to-blue suburbs stay blue after Trump

  • Inflation helped the GOP, but modestly

  • The Roe v. Wade fallout is real

  • Gun control is now a winning issue for Democrats

 
  • The Democratic base showed up

  • Abortion put Democrats in the fight

  • Trump saddled Republicans with weak candidates

  • Inflation dominated, as Democrats grasped for a response

  • The country is as closely divided as ever

 
  • The ‘red wave’ is off

  • DeSantis’s landslide — and what it portends for 2024

  • Trump’s bad night got worse

  • The latest on abortion rights

  • How Democrats did it

  • Voters shun election-denier secretary of state candidates


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